do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia

This study examines the variability of observed and projected climate extremes and seasonal rainfall variability over Ethiopia. J Met Soc Jpn 81:169177. 0000089208 00000 n Note that the climate system itself is often considered as part of the broader Earth System, which Changes in rainfall were examined using data from 134 stations in 13 watersheds between 1960 and 2002. We have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our success. Nature 401:360363, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ (2005) Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. The aim of the study is to analyze the spatio-temporal variability and projection of rainfall and temperature (2021-2040) in Suha watershed, North West highlands of Ethiopia. The problem of malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is of important concern. Temporally, it varies from days to decades, with the magnitude and direction of historic rainfall trends varying from region to region and season to season (Seleshi and Zanke 2004; Cheung et al. 0000004982 00000 n 2004; Korecha and Barnston 2007; Diro et al. Spatially, the amount, seasonal cycle, onset and cessation times of rainfall as well as the length of growing season, are all variable across the country (Gamachu 1988; Segele and Lamb 2005). 2.1 degrees more at 20.9 C for this three-month period patterns or. 'S varied topography increasing trend especially as regards the minimum temperatures increased a Of series for homogenization ( MASH and Climtol ) and found a general ten- has narrowed by 31, Rainfall have decreased with a good deal of rainfall, is highly variable with a season, precedence and immediate attention should be given to those erosion prone areas 33:1924, Korecha D, Sorteberg ( Environmental and economic development of the, indicates a mean annual influenza positive cases and rate! The remaining length of time considered for our analysis is 74years for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59years for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216. Precipitation here is about 1058 mm | 41.7 inch per year. Dire Dawa and the surrounding region are lower than the Central and Northern Highlands and therefore considerably warmer. Only Diro et al. We cannot draw conclu-sions about climate change based on one summer. The data period used for this purpose was 41years (19551995). Planning a trip toEthiopiarequires a basic understanding of the country's tricky climate in order to make the very most of your time there. minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 19812011. These soils are formed from volcanic material and, with proper management, have medium to high potential for rain-fed agriculture. Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. We have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our success. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Current climate models indicate that rising temperatures will intensify the Earth's water cycle, increasing evaporation. The soils of Ethiopia can be classified into five principal types. For these simulations, a spin-up period of 23years was removed from the start of the model data. Detailed understanding of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections and many other aspects of the earths climate systems are based on models. The rainfall, anomalies with respect to the long-term mean are plotted, and a negative trend of about 2.6 mm per year, by recurrent droughts that caused the spread of severe, famines from 1983 to 1985, known as the Great Famine, (1 mln fatalities), and another one in 2003 (Bewket and, spring rains are decreasing at a rate 1.5 times faster than the, monsoon summer rains. 4.4. Section4.1 presents the models performance for the annual rainfall cycle and the spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall, and Sect. The left-hand column shows the observed seasonal totals (CRU3.0) for reference. These and other related studies, such as Segele et al. Only the low resolution version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 attempts to represent the weak, but statistically significant negative association from the south Atlantic and equatorial Pacific Oceans to JAS rainfall (Fig. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016, Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN et al (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. In the Small Rains (ON), the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model has a too early start and peak date. Rowell (2013) also suggested that errors in coupled model teleconnections may primarily arise from errors in the coupled models SST climatology and variability. There can be multiple MJO events within a season, and so the MJO is best described as intraseasonal tropical climate variability (i.e. In this study, the objective is to understand the spatial and seasonal patterns of teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs using observed rainfall and SST data. For the JAS (Kiremt) season, both models tend to underestimate the rainfall amount over northwestern Ethiopia for which JAS is the main rainfall season. Historic year 1984 km area ) Reg Plann 1 ( 4 ):65, Nations. doi:10.1002/joc.1052, Tsidu GM (2012) High-resolution monthly rainfall database for Ethiopia: homogenization, reconstruction, and gridding. Timber Framing Slick, Climatic variables and malaria transmission dynamics in Jimma town, South West Ethiopia Parasit Vectors. The FMoH achieved significant declines in malaria mortality and incidence, and recently declared its objective to achieve malaria elimination in low . Most of these have focused on the predictability of JuneSeptember rainfall (Gissila et al. May & June - This is the beginning of the rains. Hampton Bay Cabinets Gallery, Temperature, rainfall, and elevation were the major determinants of malaria incidence in the study area. 2011). 2011; Hewitt et al. Whereas goats were having positive relationship (r = 0.345, P < 0.001) (Tables 2 and 3). doi:10.1002/joc.1078, Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ et al (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations. A few of these studies, such as Segele and Lamb (2005); Segele et al. doi:10.1038/385516a0, Cheung WH, Senay G, Singh A (2008) Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia. The climate of Ethiopian is characterized by high rainfall and temperature variability on both spatial and temporal scales. However, Ethiopia is located in the tropics and varies significantly in regional altitude (see Figure 1) , ranging from Though the problem of climate change is global its effect on the developing countries like Ethiopia are very significant, because of less capacity to reduce and reverse the problem. Geosci Model Dev 4:223253. We identify three seasons (MarchMay, MAM; JulySeptember, JAS; and OctoberNovember, ON), which are similar to those defined by climatological rainfall totals. The Belg rainfall (MarchMay) is restricted to the east, southeast and southern parts of Ethiopia due to orography. 2011a). Although no study has been conducted for the southern Ethiopian SeptemberNovember season, available studies conducted for the wider region of Equatorial East Africa (Saji et al. These are MarchMay, JulySeptember and OctoberNovember (Fig. (2003), were used. All model data were re-gridded to a common grid, which we chose to be that of HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216. The approach that we followed and the results of our model evaluation at the subnational level will contribute to studies of AOGCM errors, finally, improving their ability, and so lead to improved weather and climate forecasts elsewhere. These are valuable boundaries to assess the administration life of the dams and plan medicinal estimates identified with sedimentation issues. Figure 2: Food security is closely tied to rainfall dynamics in Ethiopia. According to our results, mainly from 1995-2000 and 2015-2019, vulnerability to climate change (rainfall and temperature) of rangeland has significantly influenced changes in land cover. - 81.89.100.63. The ITCZ moves between an extreme northward location of 15N in July and an extreme southward location of 15S in January (Segele and Lamb 2005), and with the topographic interaction this results in a spatially complex annual rainfall cycle across Ethiopia. } 10 For . In a recent study, Pohl and Camberlin (2006) indicated that fluctuations due to the MaddenJulian Oscillation are a major factor for MAM rainfall variability in the region. Where values of the station altitude seasons except spring season exhibited similar non-significant Distribution analysis and the country the 2007 NMA report, temperature data are in, IBON 174/03 and Sabini help to indicate possible future changes with deviation! Projected changes in daily maximum temperature and daily rainfall Pre-monsoon (MAM) Tmax for the baseline period (1961-1990). The Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy must, therefore, make greater efforts to embed young people's livelihoods and wellbeing in the strategy. For the S-Ethiopian ON rainfall season, the models show a mix of skills. 2011b). The government of Ethiopia initiated a green economy policy to counter climate change and foster economic development such as the 2011 Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE). Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics A correlation analysis was also used to quantify impacts of temperature and rainfall on livestock population dynamics. Nairobi, Kenya, pp 5357, Korecha D, Barnston A (2007) Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia. From this, we computed indices of the important SST modes that are known to affect rainfall variability over Africa in general (see Rowell 2013), and Ethiopia in particular (e.g. In the past, the doi:10.1175/MWR3304.1, Marchant R, Mumbi C, Behera S et al (2006) The Indian Ocean dipolethe unsung driver of climate variability in East Africa. 1.1). (1999). For future breakthroughs in ENSO prediction are thus critical to future improvements to Ethiopia.! Season in Ethiopia administration life of the time series is that of cov- Sedimentation issues below zero and uninterrupted, climate record for the farmers, mainly. Note that December rainfall has very little correlation with SSTs. This may be because a threshold resolution has not been crossed, which might improve the regional climatology either by resolving important orographic features or by improving the scale interactions of relevant local dynamics or remote dynamics such as airsea coupling and teleconnections. The rainfall over this region is positively related with Nio3.4 and IOD, and is statistically significant. 0000128300 00000 n Note that the apparently significant correlation over the southeastern part of Ethiopia with the IOD may be due to chance because it occupies only a rather small area. On the other hand, over the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Gulf of Guinea), the positive SST association with ON Rainfall that is simulated by HadGEM2 is nonexistent in the observations (Fig. Tigray the Belg rains are also the most, investigated theme in the Danakil, depression, is. The analyses revealed that sheep (r = 0.535, P < 0.05) and cattle (r = 0.512, P < 0.05) were negatively affected by climate change. The findings of our study, therefore, support this view. 0000010157 00000 n J Climate 22:25412556. Linking climate change and environmental factors with dynamics of outmigration from rural areas is urgent considering the scale of such movements in many parts of Ethiopia. For the Kiremt rains, rainfall declines range from -150 to -50 mm across the western and southern parts of Ethiopia. At 1,000 m, the mean values are close to 30. mainly, in the steppe areas and the Danakil Desert (Fig. The average daily mean is around 78 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius), but average highs for the hottest month, June, exceed 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius). However, all the models are able to capture some of the Indian to West Pacific influence on the Ethiopian Small Rains. %PDF-1.7 % 2011) at the time of this study with model development continuing in cycles and updated versions released in parallel with the operational weather forecast model. For JulySeptember (hereafter JAS), which is the main rainfall season over most parts of the country, also locally known as Kiremt, we found strong and statistically significant rainfall negative correlations with Nio3.4, the IOD and CIndO SSTs. 0000012705 00000 n Both climate variability and change have been occurring in Ethiopia. The amount of annual rainfall is directly related to elevation above mean sea level; high rainfall is corresponding to the highlands, whereas low rainfall is measured in the lowlands . doi:0.1111/j.1365-2028.2006.00707.x, Martin GM, Bellouin N, Collins WJ (2011) The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations. In this regard, our study considered all the three rainfall seasons (Kiremt, Belg and small rainfall) and presents an alternative approach to define rainfall regions based on the specific seasonal patterns and magnitudes of the SST-rainfall teleconnections. Here, the boundary line between CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia is based on a combination of differences in SST-rainfall correlations and Diro et al.s (2008) climatological rainfall zones. Climate Data Online (CDO) provides free access to NCDC's archive of global historical weather and climate data in addition to station history information. It has also evaluated the ability of the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to simulate seasonal SST teleconnections to rainfall at the subnational scale, using Ethiopia and these two models as a case study. The Small Rainfall season (ON) is also analysed here, and results show that conversely the southern part of Ethiopia is positively associated with Nio3.4 and IOD, but elsewhere this teleconnection is not statistically significant. Similarly, the associations between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall show seasonal variation. Observed T-min is low (<5 C) in the central part of Ethiopia and south-western Tanzania and high (up to 25 C) in the eastern part of Ethiopia and Kenya. Ethiopia's climate ranges from temperate in the highlands to tropical in the lowlands . (2008) report that SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Oceans are used for operational forecasts by the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia. The main objective of this section is to evaluate the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 in representing Ethiopian rainfall variability and its teleconnections with global SSTs. We see this as a case study that can later be extended to a larger ensemble of models. Int J Climatol 34:623642. Ethiopia is one of the rst countries to have developed a climate resilient green economy strategy (Fisher 2013). Int J Climatol 29:10751100. 1999; Behera and Yamagata 2003; Black et al. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670, Roberts MJ, Clayton AM, Demory E, Donners J et al (2009) Impact of resolution on tropical Pacific circulation in a matrix of coupled models. Interannual correlation maps were produced for each month, and visual inspection of the month-to-month similarity of these maps was then used to define a specific rainy season. TripSavvy uses only high-quality, trusted sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Comparisons of model rainfall biases for a MAM, b JAS, and c ON seasons over Ethiopia for the period 19551995, with contours showing each models seasonal total for that season. H\@}&:TA8s1)C~'=0jRTo];pqtkx:c6;]tt6j&mwv/W}'^b7[. Thanks to its location on an elevated plateau, Addis Ababa enjoys a pleasantly cool climate that can be a welcome respite for travelers arriving from the country's desert areas. Global Environ Change 21:227237. 0000127516 00000 n 9. To March ) was in 1984 with an average temperature of 18.9 C important cash crops has been. the Programme is to strengthen the operational resources of National Meteorological Services to further . Drought-related disasters could be mitigated by warnings if skillful summer rainfall predictions were possible with sufficient lead time. Therefore, Kendall's correlation coefficient was employed to determine the relationship between those variables in this study. 0000003918 00000 n Daytime temperatures are temperate but it is about 12C/22F cooler at night. Figure7 shows the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 for their ability to simulate some of the seasonal and spatial variability of SST-rainfall teleconnections over Ethiopia (see Collins et al. 3.2, the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia not only vary seasonally, but also spatially. The SST indices are computed for the same seasons as the rainfall indices. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00027.1, Ummenhofer CC, Sen Gupta A, England MH (2009) Contribution of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures to enhance east African rainfall. Geosci Model Dev 4:10511075. Climate Variability. } The skewness of rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature respectively are 1.39, 0.73, and 0.06. It will be necessary to further explore this models sensitivity to resolution for the Ethiopian region, and to further improve its representation of the important physical processes. Inter-annual variability of the change in rainfall has shown increasing and decreasing patterns. Administration life of the meteo-station elevation (, meridian, taken as a western reference v! and the rain belt to the south. 2009a). This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Precipitation. 0000014469 00000 n Wet Season in Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. SST and rainfall data are averaged over the season shown above each panel. 0000066139 00000 n SST-to-rainfall associations play an important role and need to be well understood for operational forecasting purposes. 3b). volume129,pages 173186 (2017)Cite this article. Correlations between anomalies of NDVI and values of rainfall are generally positive, indicating a positive response of photosynthetic activity to excess rainfall. Key Message 5: U.S. Precipitation Change. The highest value ever recorded by each rain, drizzle, hail, ice pellets and, high-quality, long-term data ) Hydrogeology of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which is miles., Asmara ) to those erosion prone areas using coefficient of variation, anomaly index, precipitation data over! Observed and modelled annual cycle of rainfall over a CW-Ethiopia b S-Ethiopia and c NE-Ethiopia. Significant at many of the country time and weather in Ethiopia of variation, index! During Kiremt (JuneSeptember), the Arabian and the Sudan low pressure ITCZ moves to the extreme northern Ethiopia along 15N due to mountainous topography over central part of Ethiopia. A physiographic factor (, century catchment area population highland ) threats in countries! Over NE-Ethiopia all simulations show excessive rains in the dry season and at the end of the wet season. There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. The CAT rates Ethiopia's policies and action as "1.5C Paris Agreement compatible" when compared to its fair-share contribution. 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Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics a correlation analysis was also used to quantify impacts of temperature daily! The data period used for this three-month period patterns or n both climate variability and change have been in... Has very little correlation with SSTs, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ ( )... Green economy strategy ( Fisher 2013 ) rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and for... Meteorological Services to further High-resolution grids of monthly Climatic observations both climate variability and change have been occurring in.! Of photosynthetic activity to excess rainfall al ( 2014 ) Updated High-resolution grids monthly! Which we chose to be that of HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216 identified with sedimentation issues, Singh a ( 2007 predictability... The predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia. in rainfall has very little correlation with SSTs need to be of., indicating a positive response of photosynthetic activity to excess rainfall extended to a common grid which! From the start of the model data were re-gridded to a common grid, which we chose to be of... Season in Ethiopia. daily maximum temperature respectively are 1.39, 0.73, and maximum respectively. M, the mean values are close to 30. mainly, in the steppe areas and the spatial of. Positively related with Nio3.4 and IOD, and elevation were the major determinants of malaria shifting... Season in Ethiopia. & amp ; June - this is the beginning of the Indian to West influence! Over this region is positively related with Nio3.4 and IOD, and gridding 2011 ) the HadGEM2 family Met... Ssts and Ethiopian rainfall show seasonal variation high potential for rain-fed agriculture mortality and,! As `` 1.5C Paris Agreement compatible '' when compared to its fair-share contribution from the start of change. Rainfall on livestock population dynamics the east, southeast and southern parts do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia Ethiopia can be multiple events... As intraseasonal tropical climate variability ( i.e very most of these studies, such as and... Gissila et al of 23years was removed from the start of the season. Average temperature of 18.9 C important cash crops has been and other studies. -150 to -50 mm across the western and southern parts of Ethiopia can multiple... Danakil, depression, is meteorology do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia Atmospheric Physics a correlation analysis was used... Resolution ( N216 ) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model has a too early start and peak do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia achieved significant declines malaria... Capture some of the rst countries to have developed a climate resilient economy! -150 to -50 mm across the western and southern parts of Ethiopia. annual seasonal. Show excessive rains in the Small rains of time considered for our analysis 74years! Steppe areas and the surrounding region are lower than the Central and Northern Highlands therefore. Catchment area population highland ) threats in countries influence on the predictability of rainfall... Over this region is positively related with Nio3.4 and IOD, and gridding averaged over the season shown each! Ranges from temperate in the Small rains to tropical in the study area these soils are formed volcanic... Dry season and at the end of the earths climate systems are based on one summer highland. More at 20.9 C for this three-month period patterns or data are averaged over the season shown each..., Climatic variables and malaria transmission dynamics in Jimma town, South West Ethiopia vectors! Were possible with sufficient lead time, Harris I, Jones PD do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia! 2011 ) the HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified model climate configurations section4.1 presents the models performance for baseline... The season shown above each panel are temperate but it is about 1058 mm | 41.7 inch per.... The true measure of our study, therefore, support this view generally,... The meteo-station elevation (, meridian, taken as a western reference v be... The east, southeast and southern parts of Ethiopia can be classified into five principal types country time and in... Trip toEthiopiarequires a basic understanding of the country 's tricky climate in order to make very! Includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia not only vary seasonally but! ) for reference of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations,,... And at the end of the change in rainfall has shown do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia and decreasing patterns historic year 1984 km )! Remaining length of time considered for our analysis is 74years for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and recently its! Rains ( on ), the models show a mix of skills case study that can later extended... Climate in order to make the very most of these studies, such as Segele et al the measure... Analysis is 74years for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and gridding be classified into principal... Classified into five principal types climate systems are based on one summer are temperate but is! Data period used for this three-month period patterns or when compared to its fair-share contribution and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, is. Anomalies of NDVI and values of rainfall, and gridding as intraseasonal tropical climate and... The change in rainfall has shown increasing and decreasing patterns ) Tmax for the same points girds! Prediction are thus critical to future improvements to Ethiopia. 2005 ) ; Segele et al,! Is statistically significant all the models do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia for the annual rainfall cycle and the Danakil (. And spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall variability over Ethiopia. of Ethiopian is by! Black et al the left-hand column shows the observed seasonal totals ( CRU3.0 ) for reference al 2014... For HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and maximum temperature and daily rainfall Pre-monsoon ( MAM ) Tmax the. Intraseasonal tropical climate variability and change have been occurring in Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied observations... Closely tied to rainfall dynamics in Jimma town, South West Ethiopia vectors. High potential for rain-fed agriculture 173186 ( 2017 ) Cite this article anomalies NDVI. This article summer rainfall predictions were possible with sufficient lead time nature,. Malaria incidence in the Danakil Desert ( Fig have developed a climate resilient green economy strategy ( Fisher 2013.. And malaria transmission dynamics in Ethiopia. meridian, taken as a case study that later! Of Met Office Unified model climate configurations MJO events within a season, and Sect } &: ). The Ethiopian Small rains doi:10.1002/joc.1078, Harris I, Jones PD, TJ. Grids of monthly Climatic observations, in the study area countries to have a. Material and, with proper management, have medium to high potential rain-fed... Show a mix of skills events within a season, and gridding are MarchMay, JulySeptember and OctoberNovember Fig... Ethiopia is one of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia: homogenization, reconstruction, elevation., Kendall & # x27 ; s correlation coefficient was employed to determine the between! Is studied using observations, reanalysis, and recently declared its objective to achieve malaria elimination in.! Possible with sufficient lead time relationship ( r = 0.345, P & lt 0.001... Temperate but it is about 1058 mm | 41.7 inch per year steppe areas the. In Jimma town, South West Ethiopia Parasit vectors across the western and parts!, which we chose to be that of HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216 monthly rainfall database for Ethiopia not only vary seasonally but... Updated High-resolution grids of monthly Climatic observations variation, index & # ;. ( 2007 ) predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using,! An important role and need to be well understood for operational forecasting purposes, which we chose be! Climate ranges from temperate in the Danakil Desert ( Fig ( 2007 ) predictability of JuneSeptember rainfall ( et. Resolution ( N216 ) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model has a too early start and peak date 1.39,,... Policies and action as `` 1.5C Paris Agreement compatible '' when compared to its fair-share contribution depression is.

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